CTRP closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP) Technical Analysis Report for May 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CTRP ended the week -8.25% lower at 36.70 after tanking $2.11 (-5.44%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-1.01%). Today's close at 36.70 marks the lowest recorded closing price since March 4th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CTRP as at May 17, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.75 (4.59%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.27. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for CTRP.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on May 10th, CTRP lost -4.83% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 35.59 (S1). The share closed below the 100-day moving average at 37.37 for the first time since January 29th.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since Monday, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 41.54 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Trading close to March's low at 34.19 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Gap Down" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Ctrip. com International. Out of 57 times, CTRP closed lower 64.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 49.12% with an average market move of -0.87%.