CTLT runs into sellers again around 84.98
Catalent Inc. (CTLT) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CTLT finished Wednesday at 84.17 losing $0.15 (-0.18%), but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CTLT as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.91 (1.07%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.78. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for CTLT. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 82.94 and 85.10 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on September 11th, CTLT actually gained 1.46% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move above 85.10 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 84.98.
Although Catalent is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 85.10 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 82.94 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Catalent. Out of 185 times, CTLT closed higher 56.22% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.92% with an average market move of 1.62%.