COTY breaks back below 50-day moving average
Coty Inc. Class A (COTY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
COTY ended the month 23.14% higher at 4.47 after losing $0.27 (-5.7%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COTY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.38 (8.15%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.43. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for COTY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Coty closed back below the 50-day moving average at 4.69. After having been unable to move above 4.82 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 4.76. The last time this happened on June 23rd, COTY lost -6.88% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 4.82 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 4.00 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 3.86, downside momentum could accelerate should the stock mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Coty. Out of 61 times, COTY closed lower 52.46% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.38% with an average market move of -0.58%.