COTY fails to close above 20-day moving average
Coty Inc. Class A (COTY) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, COTY ended Thursday at 6.68 surging $1.30 (24.16%) on high volume, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Closing above Wednesday's high at 5.63, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $1.73 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COTY as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.96 (35.9%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.90. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for COTY.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 6.02 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After spiking up to 7.36 during the day, Coty found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 6.86. The last time this happened on February 4th, COTY actually gained 14.47% on the following trading day.
Although the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Strong Up Move" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Coty. Out of 125 times, COTY closed higher 52.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.60% with an average market move of 1.32%.