COTY dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Coty Inc. Class A (COTY) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
COTY ended the week -1.0% lower at 10.89 after losing $0.11 (-1.0%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.5%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 10.95, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.11 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COTY as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.20 (1.81%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.21. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for COTY.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on January 16th, COTY actually gained 2.77% on the following trading day. In spite of a strong opening the stock closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Coty closed back below the 200-day moving average at 10.91.
Though the share is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 11.11 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 11.36, upside momentum might accelerate should COTY be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to March's high at 11.25, upside momentum could speed up should the market mark new highs for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Coty. Out of 24 times, COTY closed lower 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 54.17% with an average market move of -0.38%.