COP closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
ConocoPhillips (COP) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, COP finished the month -11.02% lower at 37.39 after losing $0.25 (-0.66%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Today's close at 37.39 marks the lowest recorded closing price since April 27th. Trading up to $0.34 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on July 16th, COP actually lost -3.92% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COP as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.89 (2.4%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.47. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for COP.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 37.78 (R1).
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 40.09.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 35.90 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for ConocoPhillips. Out of 286 times, COP closed lower 54.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.50% with an average market move of -0.07%.