COG breaks back below 20-day moving average
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
COG ended the week 1.09% higher at 14.80 after losing $0.27 (-1.79%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 14.82, Cabot Oil confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.05 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COG as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.43 (2.85%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.44. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for COG.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Regardless of a strong opening the market closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The stock closed back below the 20-day moving average at 14.83. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on January 17th, COG lost -7.67% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 14.82 in the previous session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 14.77.
Although COG is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 14.37 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 14.02, downside momentum might speed up should Cabot Oil break out to new lows for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Cabot Oil. Out of 169 times, COG closed higher 53.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.80% with an average market move of 1.57%.