COF closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, COF finished the month -8.01% lower at 62.59 after edging higher $0.21 (0.34%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COF as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.72 (2.77%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.70. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for COF.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 61.08 (S1). After having been unable to move above 62.98 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 63.37. The last time this happened on June 23rd, COF lost -5.91% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 60.76 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Capital One. Out of 526 times, COF closed higher 52.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.79% with an average market move of 0.78%.