CMG closes within prior day's range
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CMG finished the week 3.66% higher at 639.00 after losing $3.39 (-0.53%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.5%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CMG as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $9.07 (1.41%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $9.19. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CMG.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Black Candle and the Dark Cloud Cover which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Dark Cloud Cover showed up on March 8, 2016, CMG lost -3.44% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 612.98.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Chipotle Mexican. Out of 82 times, CMG closed higher 59.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.98% with an average market move of 1.73%.