CMG breaks back below 100-day moving average
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CMG finished the week -1.22% lower at 467.43 after losing $2.51 (-0.53%) today, but still strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Trading $9.37 higher after the open, Chipotle Mexican was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CMG as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $17.05 (3.62%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $13.54. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CMG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on October 29th, CMG actually gained 4.74% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 455.76 (S1). The stock closed back below the 100-day moving average at 469.33.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Chipotle Mexican. Out of 42 times, CMG closed higher 54.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.90% with an average market move of 0.98%.