CME closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
CME Group Inc. (CME) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CME ended the month -10.99% lower at 162.54 after gaining $0.53 (0.33%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CME as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.10 (1.28%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.02. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for CME.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Homing Pigeon.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 162.55 (R1). The stock found buyers again today around 161.35 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 161.11 in the previous session and at 161.24 two days ago. The last time this happened on June 10th, CME actually lost -7.69% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 161.11 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Homing Pigeon" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for CME Group. Out of 22 times, CME closed lower 68.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 50.00% with an average market move of -0.08%.