CME closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
CME Group Inc. (CME) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CME ended the week -1.25% lower at 178.80 after edging higher $0.62 (0.35%) today on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CME as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.30 (1.84%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.57. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CME.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Takuri Line. The last time a Takuri Line showed up on March 20th, CME actually lost -11.91% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
As prices are trading close to May's low at 170.67, downside momentum could accelerate should the stock mark new lows for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near high of period" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CME Group. Out of 647 times, CME closed higher 53.94% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.11% with an average market move of 0.57%.