CME pushes through Thursday's high
CME Group Inc. (CME) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CME ended the week -0.03% lower at 213.13 after surging $4.82 (2.31%) today on low volume, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. This is the biggest single-day gain in over two weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on January 30th, CME actually lost -0.76% on the following trading day. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 210.25, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $2.98 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CME as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $5.17 (2.48%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.73. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CME.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
CME Group managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 211.89. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 214.16 (R1).
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 215.14 where further buy stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 220.35, upside momentum could speed up should the share be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to February's high at 218.44, upside momentum might accelerate should CME mark new highs for the month.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Up Move" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CME Group. Out of 308 times, CME closed higher 60.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.12% with an average market move of 0.87%.