CMA stuck within tight trading range
Comerica Incorporated (CMA) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CMA ended the week 1.13% higher at 62.76 after edging lower $0.21 (-0.33%) today on low volume, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CMA as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.72 (1.15%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.32. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CMA. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 62.20 and 63.43 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After moving higher in the prior session, the stock closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on November 12, 2019, CMA lost -1.93% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 62.20 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 62.20 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 62.39.
Though Comerica Incorporated is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 63.43 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 62.20 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 60.95, downside momentum could accelerate should the share break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Comerica Incorporated. Out of 214 times, CMA closed higher 53.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.75% with an average market move of 0.84%.