CF closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, CF ended the week -9.18% lower at 38.30 after losing $1.04 (-2.64%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 38.30 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 8, 2018. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CF as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.01 (5.27%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.21. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CF.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Inverted Hammer.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 39.90 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 40.01 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on Tuesday, CF lost -1.33% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Inverted Hammer" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CF. Out of 6 times, CF closed higher 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 66.67% with an average market move of 1.36%.