CCL.L misses to close above 50-day moving average
Carnival plc (CCL.L) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CCL.L ended the week -3.95% lower at 4373.00 after gaining £23.00 (0.53%) today, underperforming the FTSE 100 (1.1%). Trading £91.00 higher after the open, Carnival was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CCL.L as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been £105.00 (2.4%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of £84.40. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CCL.L.
After spiking up to 4474.00 during the day, the market found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 4429.40. The last time this happened on June 13th, CCL.L actually gained 1.42% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 4338.00 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Carnival. Out of 536 times, CCL.L closed higher 49.81% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.09% with an average market move of 0.59%.