CCL finds support at 100-day moving average
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 15, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CCL finished Tuesday at 15.93 tanking $1.92 (-10.76%) on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.52%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two months. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on June 11th, CCL actually gained 14.56% on the following trading day. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CCL as at Sep 15, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.38 (8.02%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.93. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CCL.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 15.85 during the day, the stock found support at the 100-day moving average at 15.88. Carnival closed below the 20-day moving average at 16.50 for the first time since August 18th.
While the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Carnival. Out of 319 times, CCL closed higher 56.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.25% with an average market move of 0.04%.