CCL breaks below Thursday's low
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CCL ended the month -15.47% lower at 13.88 after losing $0.46 (-3.21%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing below Thursday's low at 14.01, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.29 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CCL as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.62 (4.36%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.96. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CCL.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Monday, CCL actually gained 4.22% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 14.70 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 13.62 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Carnival. Out of 302 times, CCL closed higher 53.97% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.28% with an average market move of 0.45%.