CCL runs into sellers again around 16.71
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CCL ended the month 4.32% higher at 16.42 after losing $0.36 (-2.15%) today on low volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CCL as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.85 (5.14%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.68. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CCL. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 14.92 and 17.28 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After having been unable to move above 16.80 in the previous session, Carnival ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 16.71. The last time this happened on June 26th, CCL actually gained 6.34% on the following trading day.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 16.80 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 14.92 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Carnival. Out of 223 times, CCL closed higher 57.40% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.05% with an average market move of 0.20%.