CCL dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CCL finished the week 0.95% higher at 42.60 after losing $0.60 (-1.39%) today on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 42.76, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.26 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CCL as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.62 (1.44%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.27. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for CCL.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on February 7th, CCL lost -1.00% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 42.10 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 43.52 (R1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 41.67 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Carnival. Out of 314 times, CCL closed higher 56.37% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.87% with an average market move of 0.63%.