CCL breaks below Wednesday's low
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CCL ended Thursday at 44.30 losing $0.41 (-0.92%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.25%). Today's close at 44.30 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 7, 2016. Closing below Wednesday's low at 44.37, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.40 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CCL as at Aug 15, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.87 (1.94%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.82. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CCL.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 44.58 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on August 9th, CCL lost -0.98% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Carnival. Out of 29 times, CCL closed higher 58.62% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 82.76% with an average market move of 5.34%.