CBOE breaks back above 20-day moving average
Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CBOE ended the week -0.57% lower at 99.31 after gaining $1.33 (1.36%) today on low volume, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading up to $1.44 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CBOE as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.09 (3.15%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.40. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CBOE.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 98.67. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on May 14th, CBOE gained 0.54% on the following trading day.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 101.95 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 95.76 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test April's nearby high at 104.39.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Cboe Global. Out of 684 times, CBOE closed higher 57.60% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.33% with an average market move of 1.01%.