CBOE closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CBOE ended the week 3.04% higher at 100.17 after losing $0.63 (-0.62%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Trading $1.55 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Thursday's low at 100.33, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.22 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CBOE as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $2.89 (2.88%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.68. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CBOE.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle.
After trading as low as 99.11 during the day, the market found support at the 50-day moving average at 99.69. The last time this happened on September 25th, CBOE actually lost -3.06% on the following trading day. Prices broke below the key technical support level at 100.29 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move above 102.41 in the previous session, CBOE Holdings ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 102.00.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CBOE Holdings. Out of 188 times, CBOE closed higher 55.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.51% with an average market move of 0.43%.