CAR closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CAR finished the week 18.44% higher at 41.30 after losing $0.18 (-0.43%) today, slightly underperforming the Dow Comp. (-0.19%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.50 higher after the open, Avis Budget was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CAR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.27 (3.07%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.32. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for CAR.
After moving higher in the previous session, the share closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on February 3rd, CAR actually gained 4.75% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move above 41.67 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 41.88.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 35.54.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week High" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Avis Budget. Out of 127 times, CAR closed higher 53.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.57% with an average market move of 1.60%.