C closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Citigroup Inc. (C) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, C finished the month -2.13% lower at 50.01 after losing $0.86 (-1.69%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Today's close at 50.01 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 9th. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (C as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.89 (1.77%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.38. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for C.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hammer. The last time a Hammer showed up on January 23rd, C actually lost -1.73% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 49.37 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 49.74 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's close-by low at 47.82.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hammer" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Citigroup. Out of 29 times, C closed lower 55.17% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.62% with an average market move of -1.73%.