BSL.AX fails to close above 20-day moving average
Bluescope Steel Limited (BSL.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BSL.AX ended the week 7.03% higher at 12.02 after gaining $0.17 (1.43%) today, strongly outperforming the ASX 200 (0.42%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BSL.AX as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.54 (4.51%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.49. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BSL.AX.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on November 23rd, BSL.AX actually lost -5.79% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 11.83 (S1). After spiking up to 12.39 during the day, the share found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 12.26.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 12.55 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 11.60 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Hikkake Pattern" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Bluescope Steel. Out of 95 times, BSL.AX closed lower 51.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.53% with an average market move of 0.01%.