BOX fails to close above 50-day moving average
Box Inc. Class A (BOX) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, BOX finished Wednesday at 18.05 gaining $0.39 (2.21%), strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Closing above Tuesday's high at 17.75, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.69 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BOX as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.87 (4.92%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.84. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BOX.
After trading down to 17.57 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 17.58 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. After spiking up to 18.44 during the day, Box found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 18.44. The last time this happened on February 27th, BOX actually gained 9.62% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 17.26 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test August's nearby low at 16.77.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Box. Out of 176 times, BOX closed higher 60.23% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 55.11% with an average market move of 0.41%.