BMW.DE closes lower for the 4th day in a row
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW.DE) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, BMW.DE finished the week -0.69% lower at 71.71 after losing €0.36 (-0.5%) today, slightly underperforming the DAX (-0.21%). Today's close at 71.71 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 11, 2016. Trading €0.58 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, BMW.DE lost -1.63% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BMW.DE as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been €1.51 (2.1%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of €1.63. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BMW.DE.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 71.14 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 71.36 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since September 25th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 73.70 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BMW. Out of 26 times, BMW.DE closed higher 69.23% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 80.77% with an average market move of 6.20%.