BILI dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BILI ended Wednesday at 44.15 losing $1.24 (-2.73%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 44.90, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.16 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BILI as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.91 (4.2%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.52. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BILI.
Despite a strong opening the share closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on August 6th, BILI lost -6.37% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 42.92 (S1). The stock closed back below the 50-day moving average at 44.37.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 46.39 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 42.38 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test August's close-by low at 40.12.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Bilibili. Out of 72 times, BILI closed higher 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.44% with an average market move of 3.81%.