BGA.AX closes lower for the 4th day in a row
Bega Cheese Limited (BGA.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, BGA.AX finished Wednesday at 4.80 losing $0.01 (-0.21%), but still slightly outperforming the ASX 200 (-0.25%). Today's close at 4.80 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 18, 2017. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BGA.AX as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.07 (1.44%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.12. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BGA.AX.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on February 8th, BGA.AX lost -1.23% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move lower than 4.79 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 4.80.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 4.77 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 4.71, downside momentum could speed up should Bega Cheese break out to new lows for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Bega Cheese. Out of 30 times, BGA.AX closed lower 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of -0.19%.