BG plummets -2.78% closing $1.55 lower
Bunge Limited (BG) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BG finished the week 0.26% higher at 54.22 after tanking $1.55 (-2.78%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 54.66, Bunge confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.48 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BG as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.54 (2.76%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.36. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BG.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Belt-hold and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 54.09 (S1). The market closed back below the 200-day moving average at 55.17. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on January 24th, BG lost -4.57% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 53.12 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to February's low at 52.52, downside momentum could speed up should the stock mark new lows for the month.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Bunge. Out of 51 times, BG closed higher 62.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.75% with an average market move of 1.13%.