BAS.DE falls to lowest close since August 4, 2016
BASF SE (BAS.DE) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 8th day in a row, BAS.DE ended the week -7.59% lower at 69.02 after losing €0.98 (-1.4%) today, strongly underperforming the DAX (-0.13%). Today's close at 69.02 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 4, 2016. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 69.71, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to €0.90 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BAS.DE as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been €2.13 (3.01%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of €1.33. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for BAS.DE.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
After having been unable to move above 71.13 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 70.94. The last time this happened on September 24th, BAS.DE lost -1.36% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 76.54.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for BASF. Out of 59 times, BAS.DE closed higher 55.93% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.63% with an average market move of 1.71%.