BAP breaks back below 20-day moving average
Credicorp Ltd. (BAP) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, BAP ended the month -4.86% lower at 127.17 after losing $1.94 (-1.5%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BAP as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.99 (3.09%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.44. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for BAP. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 123.88 and 129.23 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
After trading down to 124.95 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 125.41 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. The stock closed back below the 20-day moving average at 128.36. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 18th, BAP lost -1.33% on the following trading day. The share ran into sellers again today around 128.94 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 129.23 in the prior session and at 129.19 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 129.23 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 123.88 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Credicorp Ltd.. Out of 447 times, BAP closed higher 57.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.59% with an average market move of 0.76%.