AXL closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AXL finished the month 6.89% higher at 7.60 after losing $0.14 (-1.81%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AXL as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.34 (4.46%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.56. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for AXL.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, American Axle closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on June 26th, AXL actually gained 8.10% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
The share closed back below the 200-day moving average at 7.61. After having been unable to move lower than 7.33 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 7.40.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 7.98 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for American Axle. Out of 46 times, AXL closed higher 58.70% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.04% with an average market move of 2.38%.