AWC.AX pushes through 200-day moving average
Alumina Limited (AWC.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
AWC.AX ended the week -13.11% lower at 2.65 after gaining $0.04 (1.53%) today, strongly outperforming the market (ASX 200, 0.2%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AWC.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.07 (2.68%), that's slightly below last trading month's daily average range of $0.07. Things look different on a weekly scale, where volatility is above the markets average with the monthly volatility being way above average.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the previous session, the share managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to a key support level at 2.60. Prices are trading close to the key resistance level at 2.70. After having been unable to move lower than 2.60 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 2.61.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already. Alumina Limited managed to break above the 200-day moving average at 2.63 today for the first time since April 12, 2016. The last time this happened on April 12, 2016, AWC.AX gained 3.13% on the following trading day.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 2.60 where further sell stops could get activated. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 2.58.
Among the seven market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based condition "Bullish Harami Candle" stands out. It's common interpretation of being bullish has so far been confirmed for Alumina Limited in the past. Out of 29 times during the last ten years, AWC.AX closed higher 55.17% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.17% with an average market move of 1.30%.