AVB finds buyers at key support level
AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AVB finished Wednesday at 153.09 edging higher $0.52 (0.34%), outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AVB as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.71 (1.77%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.70. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AVB.
After moving lower in the previous session, the share managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns.
After trading down to 152.19 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 152.33 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 152.47 in the previous session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 152.19. The last time this happened on September 4th, AVB actually lost -2.25% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 156.08 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for AvalonBay Communities. Out of 531 times, AVB closed higher 58.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.51% with an average market move of 0.39%.