AVB breaks below Thursday's low
AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, AVB ended the week 2.21% higher at 153.67 after edging lower $0.51 (-0.33%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 153.73, AvalonBay Communities confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.76 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AVB as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.74 (1.13%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.82. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AVB.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 158.00 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 152.08 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AvalonBay Communities. Out of 285 times, AVB closed higher 54.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.30% with an average market move of 0.33%.