AVB pushes through Thursday's high
AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 7th day in a row, AVB finished the week 3.81% higher at 227.53 after gaining $1.94 (0.86%) today on low volume, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 227.53 marks the highest recorded closing price ever. Closing above Thursday's high at 226.32, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $1.69 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AVB as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.08 (0.92%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.80. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for AVB.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 219.64.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "7 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AvalonBay Communities. Out of 10 times, AVB closed lower 70.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.00% with an average market move of -1.91%.