AVA still stuck within tight trading range
Avista Corporation (AVA) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AVA finished the week 5.69% higher at 38.08 after edging lower $0.04 (-0.1%) today on low volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AVA as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.73 (1.9%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.47. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for AVA. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 36.73 and 38.62 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 38.78 (R1). After having been unable to move above 38.53 in the previous session, Avista ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 38.33. The last time this happened on Wednesday, AVA actually gained 0.08% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 38.53 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 36.73 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Avista. Out of 755 times, AVA closed higher 54.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.01% with an average market move of 0.39%.