AV.L breaks below Thursday's low
Aviva (AV.L) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, AV.L finished the week -8.16% lower at 435.60 after losing £3.20 (-0.73%) today, underperforming the FTSE 100 (-0.16%). Today's close at 435.60 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 8, 2016. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 436.50, Aviva confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to £2.20 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AV.L as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been £8.20 (1.85%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of £7.67. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for AV.L.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 475.29.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Aviva. Out of 136 times, AV.L closed higher 55.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.97% with an average market move of 2.63%.