ASML dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, ASML finished the week -6.9% lower at 159.53 after tanking $6.82 (-4.1%) today, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-3.3%) following today's NFP report. Today's close at 159.53 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 24th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 162.26, ASML Holding confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $3.35 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ASML as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $7.01 (4.25%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $4.31. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for ASML.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 162.12 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move above 166.50 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 165.92. The last time this happened on November 27th, ASML actually gained 4.12% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 156.58, downside momentum could speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for ASML Holding. Out of 133 times, ASML closed higher 59.40% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.40% with an average market move of 1.79%.