ARNC runs into sellers again around 33.38
Arconic Inc. (ARNC) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, ARNC finished the week 6.58% higher at 33.36 after gaining $0.41 (1.24%) today, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 33.36 marks the highest recorded closing price since March 3, 2015. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ARNC as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.63 (1.92%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.82. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for ARNC.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 33.45 (R1). After having been unable to move above 33.45 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 33.38. The last time this happened on February 3rd, ARNC actually gained 1.40% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 33.45 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Arconic. Out of 39 times, ARNC closed lower 51.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 58.97% with an average market move of -0.40%.