ARNC closes within prior day's range
Arconic Inc (ARNC) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
ARNC ended the week -1.05% lower at 21.61 after gaining $0.44 (2.08%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ARNC as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.52 (2.4%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.62. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ARNC.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Takuri Line.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 21.74 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 21.10 in the prior session, Arconic Inc found buyers again around the same price level today at 21.16. The last time this happened on October 4th, ARNC actually lost -1.67% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 22.23.
While the share is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 21.10 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Takuri Line" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Arconic Inc. Out of 42 times, ARNC closed lower 52.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 61.90% with an average market move of -0.02%.