ARCH pushes through Tuesday's high
Arch Coal Inc. Class A (ARCH) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ARCH finished Wednesday at 46.30 surging $2.07 (4.68%) on high volume, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Today's close at 46.30 marks the highest recorded closing price since March 4th. Closing above Tuesday's high at 45.60, Arch Coal confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $1.60 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ARCH as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.82 (6.34%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.91. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for ARCH.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on Monday, ARCH actually lost -0.14% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since Monday, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices might head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 38.11 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Arch Coal. Out of 71 times, ARCH closed lower 59.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after eight trading days, showing a win rate of 60.56% with an average market move of -5.24%.