APH closes within prior day's range
Amphenol Corporation (APH) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, APH ended the week -3.74% lower at 105.36 after losing $0.98 (-0.92%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.9%). Today's close at 105.36 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 10, 2019. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (APH as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.58 (2.41%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.45. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for APH.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 104.08 (S1). The stock closed below the 50-day moving average at 105.82 for the first time since September 10, 2019. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on July 31, 2019, APH lost -2.70% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 108.21.
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 104.33 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Amphenol. Out of 27 times, APH closed higher 51.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.37% with an average market move of 0.93%.