AOG.AX finds buyers again around 1.96
Aveo Group Ordinary/Units FP Stapled Securities (AOG.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
AOG.AX ended the week -1.0% lower at 1.98 after gaining $0.01 (0.51%) today, slightly outperforming the market (ASX 200, 0.2%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AOG.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.04 (2.04%), that's slightly below last trading month's daily average range of $0.05. Things look different on a weekly scale, where volatility is way below the markets average with the monthly volatility being way below average.
Notwithstanding a weak opening the stock managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Bottom.
After having been unable to move lower than 1.96 in the previous session, Aveo Group found buyers again around the same price level today at 1.96. The last time this happened on October 4th, AOG.AX gained 0.50% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.94 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 1.92, downside momentum could accelerate should the share break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to October's high at 2.02, upside momentum might speed up should the market mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based condition "Close to Swing Low" stands out. While it is usually interpreted being neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish so far in the past for Aveo Group. Out of 394 times during the last ten years, AOG.AX closed lower 44.92% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 51.27% with an average market move of -0.02%.