AMGN closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AMGN ended the week -5.9% lower at 195.47 after gaining $1.47 (0.76%) today on low volume, notably outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-0.31%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AMGN as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $2.33 (1.2%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.10. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for AMGN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 193.90 and 198.46 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the previous session, the stock managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle.
After having been unable to move lower than 193.90 in the previous session, Amgen found buyers again around the same price level today at 194.33. The last time this happened on Wednesday, AMGN actually lost -0.94% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 203.32.
Though the share is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 193.90 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Amgen. Out of 69 times, AMGN closed higher 59.42% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.42% with an average market move of 1.51%.