ALV.DE slides to lowest close since September 6th
Allianz SE (ALV.DE) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, ALV.DE ended the week -6.12% lower at 181.22 after losing €1.06 (-0.58%) today, slightly underperforming the DAX (-0.13%). Today's close at 181.22 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 6th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 182.28, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to €1.92 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ALV.DE as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been €3.90 (2.12%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of €3.03. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for ALV.DE.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 180.36 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 180.88 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on Wednesday, ALV.DE actually lost -3.38% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 190.44.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test September's nearby low at 180.02.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Allianz. Out of 245 times, ALV.DE closed higher 51.02% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.96% with an average market move of 1.19%.