ALSN closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, ALSN ended Wednesday at 34.31 edging lower $0.07 (-0.2%) on high volume, but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Today's close at 34.31 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 15th. Trading $0.25 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on September 10th, ALSN actually gained 0.90% on the following trading day. Closing below Tuesday's low at 34.36, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.27 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ALSN as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.69 (2.0%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.92. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for ALSN.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 34.56 (R1), Allison Transmission closed below it after spiking up to 34.78 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Allison Transmission. Out of 346 times, ALSN closed higher 55.20% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.02% with an average market move of 0.61%.