ALK closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ALK ended the month 6.05% higher at 36.26 after losing $0.65 (-1.76%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ALK as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.49 (4.09%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.08. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for ALK.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, Alaska Air closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Hanging Man which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 34.72 (S1). After having been unable to move above 37.12 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 36.81. The last time this happened on June 26th, ALK actually gained 7.61% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 37.12 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Alaska Air. Out of 571 times, ALK closed higher 50.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.74% with an average market move of 0.87%.